Understanding Blackjack – The Chances of Winning Can Be Calculated

There are a few non‑GamStop bingo sites that give players the opportunity to at least partially influence their luck. Besides blackjack, this is especially true for roulette. Don’t get us wrong—at the end of the day, both are still games of chance. But with your decision to take a risky bet in roulette or to take another card in blackjack, you actually have some discretion or opportunity to influence the game.

There’s even another similarity between the two games. In Blackjack, we also know the “variables.” So, we know that Blackjack is played with French playing cards, and that a deck of these cards consists of 52 individual cards. We also know that:

But what can you do with this information? You can actually calculate your odds of winning, or at least estimate your chances of beating the dealer. Of course, the non GamStop casinos also know that this information will help you. Therefore, they take certain countermeasures to make this more difficult. For example, blackjack is now played with up to six decks of cards per shoe.

The Basic Strategy Forms the Basis for Long-term Successful Blackjack Playing

The result of these calculations became known as the basic strategy. This is essentially a giant table. This table lists all possible card combinations. It also shows the most promising approach in each situation.

However, this is always the best approach to winning a round according to statistical calculations. Therefore, if, for example, you have 13 points and the dealer has a 7, and basic strategy recommends you take another card, this recommendation is based solely on the result of a mathematical calculation.

However, based on this information, you can perform much more comprehensive calculations. For example, if you play online blackjack for free using the single-deck variant, the house edge is only 0.17%. The more decks of cards come into play, the higher the house edge becomes. With the six decks commonly used today, we’re already at 0.64%.

Trust Statistics & Mathematics, Not Gut Feeling

You probably already know what we’re getting at with this. If you just want to experience a bit of exciting entertainment while playing blackjack, then of course there’s nothing wrong with making your game decisions based on your spontaneous gut feeling.

However, if you want to leave the non GamStop casino with a profit in the long run, you shouldn’t bring your gut feeling to the table. In this case, the basic strategy, which is based on actual calculations and thus represents real chances of success, is a much more promising guide. Calculations such as those by American mathematics professor and blackjack expert Edward O. Thorp show the following results:

1. High card values mean an advantage for the players

From a player’s perspective, the chances of winning increase considerably when there are more high-value cards in play. Let’s stick with our example of single-deck blackjack. Let’s assume a few rounds have already been played in which predominantly low-value cards appeared. Now it might be worth placing slightly higher bets.

But why is that? There are two main reasons why your chances of winning increase with a higher number of high-value cards:

• You reduce the risk of overbuying because you only need a few (2-3) cards to reach a relatively high score.
• Since the dealer must hit a card at 16, his chances of busting increase significantly. Furthermore, he is not allowed to hit another card at 17. This will likely put you ahead of him in the overall score.

2. The higher the value of your hand, the greater the risk of overbuying

Admittedly, it probably doesn’t require any major mathematical calculations or complex formulas to arrive at this conclusion at non GamStop casinos. The closer you are to the 21-point mark, the greater the probability of exceeding it with another card. So far, so good.

But how high is this chance? You can actually calculate this very precisely and make your decision for or against another card accordingly:

3. Pull or stay? An overview of the rules of thumb

It’s obviously beneficial to internalize the basic strategy and automatically make decisions based on it. This will happen with increasing gaming experience. Until then, however, a few rules of thumb can help you. The most important ones are:

• Always split your cards if you have two aces.
• If you have 12 points without an ace and the dealer has a 4, 5 or 6 point, do not draw another card.
• If you have a soft 15 or 16 (e.g. Ace + 4 or Ace + 5) and the dealer has 4, 5 or 6 points, you should double down.
• Doubling down is only advisable if you start the game with a 9, 10 or an Ace.
• Even with 18 points, including an ace, you should still take a card if the dealer has a 9, 10 or an ace in front of him.
• If the dealer has a high starting card of 9 points or more, it is almost always better to surrender if the game variant allows the “Surrender” option.

4. What the mathematical calculations dictate

4. What the mathematical calculations dictate

Fortunately, we don’t have to do these calculations ourselves. Other players have already done them. Blackjack has now been analyzed in great detail, and the player’s odds of winning have been calculated for each card dealt. Remember that each card can either increase or decrease your chances of winning.

We’ve created a brief overview that shows the ups and downs of your chances of winning in certain game situations. This is what happens when you receive another card: